By now you are likely to have heard that the Champions League will be operating somewhat differently this season. Using the so-called Swiss model, teams now play eight league phase games against eight different opponents. Results for each club then go on the same 36-team table with the top eight finishers progressing to the round of 16. Clubs that finish 9th to 16th will face a knockout play-off against teams finishing 17th to 24th to fill the remaining eight places in the final 16.
How will this change in format impact Arsenal’s chances of winning the competition? Is UEFA’s redesign of Europe’s most prestigious club tournament going to work in their favour or would they have been better under the old system?
Increase in Size
🥁 Presenting the new #UCL format from 2024/25…
What will change, what will stay the same, what it means for fans 👇
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) March 4, 2024
Previously the Champions League only featured 32 teams in the competition proper but this figure now stands at 36. Although this is a fairly small increase, it is not completely insignificant. UEFA have filled the extra four spots in the following ways
- Slot One – Club ranked third from the fifth highest ranked nation by UEFA coefficient (France)
- Slot Two – Five clubs now qualify through the ‘Champions Path’ rather than four
- Slot Three & Four – Go to the fifth-placed side of the top two highest-ranked nations by UEFA coefficient (Italy and Germany)
Brest benefitted from the first additional slot but are huge outsiders for the competition. The extra spaces awarded to Italy and Germany went to Bologna and Borussia Dortmund, respectively. We cannot see Bologna making a huge impact having lost several key players and their manager, but the inclusion of Dortmund may make a difference. The Germans reached the final last year, knocking out the likes of Atletico Madrid and PSG on the way. Given their European pedigree, Arsenal would probably rather they were not involved given a choice as the competition is slightly tougher with them.
This is the only case you could make for the expansion making the tournament slightly more difficult for a side like Arsenal though. No one club directly benefitted from the extra champions path places but the five clubs to progress through the route are Young Boys, Dinamo Zagreb, Slovan Bratislava, Red Star Belgrade and Sparta Prague. Having an extra team of this standard does nothing to raise the overall difficulty of the tournament.
Change in Format
Moving to a Swiss model with eight group-stage games makes it – paradoxically – both easier and harder for Arsenal to reach the knockout stages. The reason for it being harder is that under the old system, pots for the group stages were not completely determined by coefficient. In last season’s competition, Benfica and Feyenoord both ended up in Pot 1 thanks to winning their respective leagues. The season before, the likes of Porto and Milan ended up in Pot 1, the latter having the fourth-lowest coefficient in the group stages.
Can’t Avoid Bigger Teams
For a Pot 2 club like Arsenal, this meant there was always a chance of getting a lucky draw. If they could be drawn with a weak pot 1 team, plus a couple of average pot 3 and 4 sides, their chances of qualifying would be extremely good. Under the new system though, seedings for the group stage are solely determined by coefficient meaning there is no longer a possibility of a Pot 2 side avoiding a big team. In Arsenal’s case, this has seen them pitted against PSG and Inter Milan.
Eight Matches Instead of Six
While this aspect makes things a little harder for the Gunners, it is not all bad news. For one thing, having eight league matches rather than six group-stage matches should work in their favour. One reason is the Londoners have better squad depth than most teams, meaning they will be better equipped to deal with an additional two matches. Secondly, the more games played, the lower any luck element. For a side like Arsenal, who are one of the best in the competition, they can expect their quality to shine through over eight fixtures.
More Forgiveness
Even if the Gunners do have a few bad evenings though, there is more forgiveness in the new system. The previous group stage format could see clubs relegated to the Europa League despite a relatively solid performance. Last season Shakhtar Donetsk collected nine points following three wins and three defeats but this was only good enough to finish in third place. A 50% win ratio in the new format, however, would guarantee a place in the knockout phase as you only need a finish in the top 24 (or 36). Rather than being in the top 50%, clubs now only need to finish in the 67% to remain in the competition.
No Change in Knockout System
There has been no change to the knockout system format (other than having a play-off round before the round of 16). The average quality of teams featuring in the knockouts may be a little higher than normal though given the reduced risk of ‘big club’ elimination in the earlier phase.
What Do the Bookies Say?
Last year Arsenal were available at 12/1 to win the Champions League. This year they will begin the competition trading around 8/1, which is a significant reduction. It is hard to say the new format of the competition has anything to do with this though. The Gunners have a slightly stronger squad than this time last year and enjoyed a very impressive season last year, which would naturally bolster their credentials. Due to this, we would expect around an 8/1 price tag for Arsenal even with the old Champions League format in place.
Pros & Cons
There has been a lot of talk about the new Champions League system benefitting bigger clubs. There is some truth in this as in the past you could have situations where a group contains three big clubs, guaranteeing that at least one would face elimination. Alternatively, a big club with an easier group could suffer just two or three bad performances and end up in real danger of missing out depending on other results.
Under the new system though, a big side can have very few complaints if they do not make it through to the last 16. They only need to finish in the top 24 to remain in the competition and managing this over eight matches should be fully achievable. The strictly coefficient-based seeing system also benefits the Pot 1 teams as Pot 2 avoids having as much quality (Pot 2 coefficient averaged 91.6 this year versus 75.2 last year).
As Arsenal are a Pot 2 club though, there was an increased likelihood of a tougher draw, and so it proved to be. This is only partly down to the format though with most of it simply bad luck as the Gunners wound up drawing some of the strongest Pot 3 and 4 sides. Even so, the Gunners should still comfortably make it to the final 16. At this point, the competition becomes just as difficult as it always has been, perhaps even more so given the reduced risk of a top team crashing out earlier on.