Even as loyal Gooners, it’s crucial to remember that successful betting isn’t about gut feelings and blind loyalty. Giving yourself the best shot or scoring from your wagers requires a well-structured approach, balancing analysis with discipline and a tactical use of promotions. Sure, the unpredictable nature of any football match means there’s no guarantees, but sharpening your strategy can help you make better-informed wagers over the course of a season.
Betting on Arsenal this season? Here’s everything you need to know about crafting a better strategy.
Understanding Betting Markets
Before we dive into the specifics of strategy, let’s first take a look at some key betting markets. Match result bets – win, lose or draw – are the most common in Arsenal betting markets, but you might find better value elsewhere.
The Both Teams to Score (BTTS) market is a frequent go-to for Premier League games and it’s especially relevant to anyone betting on Arsenal, given Mikel Areta’s tactical philosophy. During the 23-24 season, the Gunners saw BTTS land in over half of their fixtures, making this a good option to explore.
Similarly, the Over 2.5 Goals market is worth tracking, especially in games against mid-table opponents.
Then, there are player-focused bets. Bukayo Saka to score? Declan Rice to rack up tackles? Gabriel Magalhães to get booked? Prop markets like these can often present better value than traditional outright bets.
Adopting a Data Driven Approach
If you’re a more experienced punter who is planning to bet on Arsenal week in-week out, numbers will be your best friend. You might be able to get away with setting a few prop bets as a beginner or casual fan, but any kind of long-term approach should be rooted in data. After all, bookies set their odds based on the probabilities of outcomes, so digging into statistics can help inform your decisions.
What do you need to know, then? Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Goals Against (xGA) are the key indicators of a team’s attacking and defensive efficiency. Arsenal’s average xG last season hovered around 1.9 per match, highlighting their offensive dominance. However, against sides that press aggressively, their xGA rose higher – something to bear in mind before backing them to win to nil in 2025.
Beyond expected goals, other stats that will contribute to smarter bets including shot conversion rates, defensive transitions and set-piece efficacy. The more data you can digest, the clearer the betting picture becomes.
Maximising Promotions
New customer promotions are a staple of the iGaming industry, especially in the casino gaming sectors. Due to the over-saturation of the remote casino market, operators will use promotions like sign-up bonuses as a way to incentivise gaming at their platforms. While in the casino realm, these bonuses translate into free spins or no deposit offers, they’re also a valuable tool in sports betting.
If used wisely, a bonus offer can stretch your bankroll and allow you to test a new strategy with minimal risk. Meanwhile, for new punters, they’re a great way to make the move from theoretical to real money betting.
You’ll find that most sportsbooks will offer some form of sign-up bonuses for new customers, typically in the form of free bets or matched deposits. Let’s say a bookmaker offers a £25 free bet for creating a new account —you could use this to back Arsenal in a high-value market without risking your own money.
The key to making the most of these offers is understanding the wagering requirements – we can’t overstate how important this is. Most bookies will require you to load up your account with a minimum deposit before you can access the free bet offer, and in some cases you might have to bet the bonus amount several times over before you can withdraw your winnings. Always read the small print!
Final Tips
- Always follow the Golden Rule of bankroll management: never stake more than you can afford to lose. A good strategy to adopt is the 1-5% rule, where you allocate a sustainable percentage in that window for each bet
- Timing matters; backing Arsenal early in the week might lock in good odds, but waiting until team news drops can be equally valuable. If a key player is ruled out, odds will shift – sometimes dramatically
- Tracking your bets is an overlooked but crucial habit to instil, as keeping a record of your wagers (include stake, odds and outcome here) will allow you to spot patterns that could inform your ongoing strategy