Although silverware has not come thick and fast for Mikel Arteta as Arsenal boss, there is a feeling that things could be different this season. The Gunners remain in four competitions and have looked strong in all of them so far. Due to this, we want to examine just how many trophies Arsenal can realistically expect to win this year and where success is most likely to come.
Premier League
- Current Position: 1st
- Winning Odds: 1/3
- Implied Probability: 75%
Even after a frustrating draw with Brentford, Arsenal remain in control of the title race. They enjoy a four-point advantage over Man City with 12 games left remaining. While this does not seem like a large gap, especially when Arsenal still face Pep Guardiola’s men at their ground, it could well prove to be enough.
City, for all their big-money stars, have not been overly convincing this season. Having dropped points in 38% of their league matches so far, it is hard to think they are going to end the campaign with a perfect record. So, Arsenal should be able to endure a few slip-ups, as they did against Brentford, while remaining in pole position.
League Cup
- Current Round: Final
- Winning Odds: 8/11
- Implied Probability: 58%
Arsenal will get their first chance of claiming silverware this season when they take on Manchester City in the League Cup final on 22nd March. A clash between the country’s two best teams could easily go either way, and it is expected to be closely fought. For a time, City relished fixtures against the Gunners. Between November 2017 and April 2023, they won 15 of 16 encounters. Since then, however, they have failed to win any of the last six, as Arsenal have massively improved their record against the other sides in the traditional big six.
While Arsenal fans will take confidence from this, their League Cup record is surprisingly poor for a club of their size. They have only two wins in the competition, the last coming in 1993. They have reached the final three times since then, but lost each one. City, meanwhile, have bagged eight League Cup trophies, making them the competition’s second most successful team. Pep Guardiola also has an excellent domestic cup final record in England, which reads six wins from eight appearances.
Former glories will not count for much when the two teams meet in March, but we should be set for an intense battle nonetheless.
FA Cup
- Current Round: Final
- Winning Odds: 7/2
- Implied Probability: 22%
Arsenal comfortably beat struggling Championship side Portsmouth 4-1 in the third round, with three of their goals coming from corners. You would fully expect them to find life even easier in the fourth round as they take on League One side Wigan at home. Anything other than a routine win would represent a big surprise, so it is reasonable to assume they will feature in the fifth-round draw.
If Arsenal do see off Wigan, they will still need to beat another four teams to lift the trophy, so there is still a long way to go. That said, the Gunners are likely to be favourites in most future ties, unless they face an away match against a Premier League heavyweight. The only trouble is that Mikel Arteta has bigger priorities this season, so he will likely rest key players for this competition. Although the Spaniard has plenty of quality in reserves, rotation still increases the risk of elimination.
Champions League
- Current Round: Round of 16
- Winning Odds: 7/2
- Implied Probability: 22%
The Gunners are through to the round of 16 in the Champions League after finishing top of the league phase with a perfect record. Registering 23 goals for and just four against, the Gunners have been exceptional on the continent and have beaten some very capable sides along the way, such as Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Inter. Based on league phase showings, it is easy to see why Mikel Arteta’s men are favourites to go all the way.
In the round of 16, the north Londoners will face either Atalanta, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen or Olympiacos, none of which should pose any major problems over two legs. After this point, stiffer challenges will likely await, but there is no team Arsenal cannot beat on their day. Success in Europe has come rarely for the Gunners, but they may not get many better chances to put things right.
Summary: The Number Crunching
Implied probabilities based on bookmaker odds are not an exact science, but they tend to run reasonably close to predictions made using sophisticated AI models. Using them, we can get an idea of how many trophies Arsenal may lift this season.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0 trophies | 6.3% |
| 1+ trophy | 93.7% |
| 2+ trophies | 58.2% |
| 3+ trophies | 17.1% |
| 4 trophies | 1.8% |
Any Arsenal fan should feel confident about winning at least one trophy this year, while there is also a very decent chance of two. Anything beyond that would be a bonus, as the odds are against seeing a treble. For fans dreaming of a possible quadruple, even in Arsenal’s current strong position, it would take something truly special to pull off.