Wednesday, June 18, 2025, represented a key date in the diary for football fans – and one of few summertime distractions from the endless churning of the transfer rumour mill. Rather than focusing on possible incomings, supporters flocked to see who their teams would face following the release of the 2025/26 Premier League fixture list.
Hoping for a Positive Start
Many view the Christmas period and springtime run-in as the most crucial spells in the race for the title. However, three points count the same whether they arrive in August or April. As such, it never hurts to start on the right foot. With that in mind, many fans hoped for a gentle opening set of fixtures, allowing their club to find its stride ahead of the bigger challenges ahead.
Supporters of Aston Villa, West Ham, and newly promoted Sunderland received their wish. Arsenal fans most certainly did not, with the Gunners handed a fiendishly difficult schedule in August and September.
Tough Battles at Home and Away
When making plans for the season ahead, Mikel Arteta probably didn’t envisage facing four of last season’s top seven sides in the space of the opening six games. However, that is precisely what unfolded as the randomly generated fixture list handed Arsenal the following daunting schedule:
- Sun 17 August – Manchester United vs Arsenal
- Saturday 23 August – Arsenal vs Leeds United
- Saturday 30 August – Liverpool vs Arsenal
- Saturday 13 September – Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest
- Saturday 20 September – Arsenal vs Manchester City
- Saturday 27 September – Newcastle United vs Arsenal
On 2024/25 form, a trip to Old Trafford is nothing to fear. However, there is inevitably an added edge to clashes between Arsenal and Manchester United stemming from the 21st-century rivalry between the clubs. As far as opening fixtures go, facing the Red Devils on their own patch falls firmly into the tricky category.
Some relief arrives in game two, as newly promoted Leeds United provide the opposition in the opening fixture at the Emirates. Arsenal will be strongly favoured to win this one, but things become significantly tougher.
Much the best side in 2024/25 and bolstered by the signing of German sensation Florian Wirtz, Liverpool may prove tough to beat in the race for the title. Whilst unfathomably tragic, the death of Diogo Jota seems likely to strengthen the already steely resolve of one of the most talented squads in the country. Anything other than defeat should be viewed as positive.
Whilst tough, Arsenal will at least start as solid favourites in two of their opening three home fixtures – the second of which sees last season’s surprise package, Nottingham Forest, travel to north London. Nuno Espirito Santo’s troops fell away late in 2024/25 but remain a dangerous side on the counterattack. The Gunners should win this but will need to bring their A-game.
The side that forced Arsenal to settle for second place in two of the past three seasons is next in line. Whilst some way below their brilliant best last year, Manchester City have added over £100 million of new talent to their ranks already this summer. With one of the best managers in the global game remaining in the hot seat, the Citizens are well positioned to bounce back, despite stumbling at the Club World Cup.
Last but not least, a trip to the North East to face Eddie Howe and Newcastle United, who head into the campaign on a high. Controversial VAR decisions and accusations of time-wasting have plagued recent encounters in what is always a fiercely contested matchup.
How Many Points Will Arsenal Pick Up?
Pre-season is always a perilous time for predictions, particularly with two months of the transfer window remaining. However, a look back at the results of the corresponding games from 2024/25 may provide a rough guide as to what Arsenal fans can expect.
- Manchester United 1 – 1 Arsenal
- Liverpool 2 – 2 Arsenal
- Arsenal 3 – 0 Nottingham Forest
- Arsenal 5 – 1 Manchester City
- Newcastle United 1 – 0 Arsenal
Assuming Arsenal beat new boys Leeds at home, the Gunners will amass 11 points across their opening six fixtures – if matching their 2024/25 results.
Does a Solid Start Lead to Success?
Considering the calibre of the opposition, 11 points from those opening six games would represent a solid start to the season. But where is such a total likely to leave Arsenal in May? Let’s take a look back at Arsenal’s opening six results over the past five Premier League seasons, the points accumulated, and their final league position.
2024/25 First Six Results
- Arsenal 2 – 0 Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Aston Villa 0 – 2 Arsenal
- Arsenal 1 – 1 Brighton
- Tottenham 0 – 1 Arsenal
- Manchester City 2 – 2 Arsenal
- Arsenal 4 – 2 Leicester City
Points After Six Games – 14 | Finishing Position – 2nd
2023/24 First Six Results
- Arsenal 2 – 1 Nottingham Forest
- Crystal Palace 0 – 1 Arsenal
- Arsenal 2 – 2 Fulham
- Arsenal 3 – 1 Manchester United
- Everton 0 – 1 Arsenal
- Arsenal 2 – 2 Tottenham
Points After Six Games – 14 | Finishing Position – 2nd
2022/23 First Six Results
- Crystal Palace 0 – 2 Arsenal
- Arsenal 4 – 2 Leicester City
- Bournemouth 0 – 3 Arsenal
- Arsenal 2 – 1 Fulham
- Arsenal 2 – 1 Aston Villa
- Manchester United 3 – 1 Arsenal
Points After Six Games – 15 | Finishing Position – 2nd
2021/22 First Six Results
- Brentford 2 – 0 Arsenal
- Arsenal 0 – 2 Chelsea
- Manchester City 5 – 0 Arsenal
- Arsenal 1 – 0 Norwich City
- Burnley 0 – 1 Arsenal
- Arsenal 3 – 1 Tottenham
Points After Six Games – 9 | Finishing Position – 5th
2020/21 First Six Results
- Fulham 0 – 3 Arsenal
- Arsenal 2 – 1 West Ham
- Liverpool 3 – 1 Arsenal
- Arsenal 2 – 1 Sheffield United
- Manchester City 1 – 0 Arsenal
- Arsenal 0 – 1 Leicester City
Points After Six Games – 9 | Finishing Position – 8th
The Importance of a Positive Start
The past five seasons suggest a strong correlation between how Arsenal start and where they ultimately finish the season, with their two poorest starts leading to their two lowest finishing positions over this period. Having finished only second despite picking up 14+ points in their opening six games in each of the past three seasons, an opening salvo of 11 would suggest the Gunners are up against it.
On a more positive note, Arsenal’s opening fixtures in 2025/26 are significantly tougher than the first six games in any of the last five seasons. As such, a tally of 11 points should see the Gunners firmly in the title race. Any more than that will lay a solid foundation to deliver the title. Of course – they still need to buy a striker!