Arsenal have set many records and won many trophies over their long history but one piece of silverware still missing from their cabinet is the Champions League trophy. Europe’s most coveted club prize is something the north London outfit would desperately love to win but just how likely are they to go all the way this year?
First Champions League Semi-Final Since 2008/09
Champions League semi-finalists in the same season for the very first time.
Part one begins tomorrow.
The Arsenal. All of us 👊 pic.twitter.com/i98HNM0tBJ
— Arsenal (@Arsenal) April 18, 2025
It may surprise many to know that it has been 16 years since the Gunners last reached the semi-finals of the Champions League. At this stage of the campaign, they suffered a 4-1 aggregate defeat to eventual Premier League champions, Manchester United. Arsenal went one step further, to the final, in 2005/06, but this represents their only appearance at the last stage. The club’s underwhelming European record should not weigh on the shoulders of the current side, however, as they aim to make history in this competition.
Arsenal’s Journey So Far
How have Arsenal managed to complete the rare feat of making it to the semi-final stages of this competition? Sometimes a good run in a tournament can be simply down to an easy path but this has not been the case this time around.
| League Phase Opponent | Scoreline | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta (A) | 0-0 | Draw |
| PSG (H) | 2-0 | Win |
| Shakhtar Donetsk (H) | 1-0 | Win |
| Inter Milan (A) | 1-0 | Loss |
| Sporting Lisbon (A) | 1-5 | Win |
| Monaco (H) | 3-0 | Win |
| Dinamo Zagreb (H) | 3-0 | Win |
| Girona (A) | 1-2 | Win |
One main takeaway from Arsenal’s league phase performance is the fact they conceded just three goals, giving them the second-best defensive record among the 36 teams involved. They also beat PSG 2-0, in a deserved win, and that result could give us an insight about how the first leg of the semi-final might play out.
What we saw in this victory back in October was a mature and defensively solid performance from the Gunners, which limited PSG to a mere 0.4 xG, despite the visitors having 10 efforts on goal. The only trouble is, one of Arsenal’s best performers on the night and the man responsible for opening the scoring, was the injured, Kai Havertz. The German led the line so well that night and allowed other players behind him to shine, but Arteta faces this match with no natural number nine to play.
| Knockout Stage Opponent | Scoreline | Result |
|---|---|---|
| PSV (A) | 1-7 | Win |
| PSV (H) | 2-2 | Draw |
| Real Madrid (H) | 3-0 | Win |
| Real Madrid (A) | 1-2 | Win |
It was feared that the absence of a proper striker might hurt Arsenal in the knockout stages but they have shown zero signs of it being a problem so far. With Mikel Merino up top, they managed to fire a record-breaking seven goals past PSV, with six players getting themselves on the scoresheet. Even when facing the much tougher challenge of defending champions Real Madrid, the Londoners managed to register five goals across the two legs and an even greater xG.
To soundly beat a team like Real Madrid, despite key players missing, will give Arsenal a huge sense of confidence ahead of their semi-final bout. An equally large boost is the recent return of Bukayo Saka who has regained fitness just at the right time as he brings so much quality to the Gunners’ attack.
The PSG Threat
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Much like Arsenal, PSG have experienced little luck in this competition. Despite being involved in the last 12 iterations (excluding this one) of the tournament, the wealthy side have only made it to one final. Europe’s premium competition is never easy to win but for all the money Nasser Al-Khelaifi has invested in the club, the absence of a CL title is widely regarded as a failing.
While bringing in the likes of Neymar and Lionel Messi failed to produce any European silverware, how about their current youthful squad managed by Luis Enrique? Les Parisiens wrapped up the league title in early April, without losing a match, following a 1-0 win over Angers and have seriously impressed domestically this campaign.
The advantage of having the league all sewn up is that they can afford to take their remaining few Ligue 1 games easy, meaning key players can be well-rested for the semi-finals. The French outfit also have no players suspended for the tie, unlike Arsenal who will be without Thomas Partey for the first leg.
The bookies have PSG as very narrow (5/6) favourites to progress over Arsenal (21/20) despite an underwhelming league phase effort, which saw them finish in 15th place. To their credit though, this young side has improved and during this time they have triumphed over three Premier League outfits (Man City, Liverpool and Aston Villa). Their round of 16 win over Liverpool was particularly impressive as not only did they manage to get a result at the fortress that is Anfield but they were the better team over the two legs.
Who Could Arsenal Face in the Final?
🚨 OFFICIAL: Champions League semi finals!
🔴🔵PSG vs Arsenal 🔴⚪️
🔵🔴 Barcelona vs Inter ⚫️🔵 pic.twitter.com/FE5x846KlJ— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) April 16, 2025
The other Champions League semi-final, featuring Barcelona and Inter Milan, is another that is finely balanced. Inter would provide Arsenal with a most stylistically similar test as their safety-first approach has seen them concede a mere five goals in their 12 European matches so far. Barcelona’s adventurous, high-pressing and high-line approach would provide a rather more unique test but perhaps Arsenal would prefer to face them as they can be so deadly on the break.
Whether it is Barcelona or Inter that make it to the final, either would provide Arsenal with a stiff test. On such a big occasion though, mentality can play a big part and this is what could give Inter or Barcelona a slight edge. Inter are the current Italian champions while Barcelona look set for yet another league title. Arsenal, meanwhile, last won a major trophy in 2020. Despite this, the Opta Supercomputer gives Arsenal the best chance of lifting this year’s Champions League trophy (28.7%)
The Bottom Line
This year’s Champions League is so finely poised you could not possibly say Arsenal will go all the way, but they absolutely could. Their expert displays against Real Madrid, home and away, showed us they are a side that can perform under pressure against the very best. Other teams may have more in the way of (available) attacking talents but Arsenal’s robust defence, which continues to impress even without Gabriel, gives them a fine chance of going all the way to European glory.