It is somewhat strange that the big story in English football right now is Arsenal’s elimination from the two competitions they care least about. Like it or loathe it, like other elite clubs in the Premier League and around Europe, Arsenal view the domestic cups as more of a hindrance than a priority.
The Gunners’ hierarchy and fans are far more concerned about winning the Champions League, landing the Premier League title, and qualifying for next season’s Champions League – and not necessarily in that order – than they are about the ‘glory’ of the FA Cup or EFL Cup.
That is why Arsenal’s defeat to Manchester City in the final of the League Cup and their surprise loss to Championship outfit Southampton in the quarter-finals of the FA Cup is not really the big story the media are portraying it as. Yes, the club’s dreams of landing a quadruple ended rather suddenly, and within the space of two weeks, so did their hopes of the treble.
But the double is very much still on the cards in the competitions they really care about. The Gunners have never won the European Cup or the Champions League. Meanwhile, their last Premier League title came over 20 years ago, in 2003/04. Landing either of those trophies would make 2025/26 a fabulous campaign for the club, and the double would make it perhaps the best in their history.
Wobble, What Wobble?
Some pundits have written about Arsenal’s season falling apart, but that assessment rather ignores the fact that they have a nine-point lead at the top of the Premier League. Prior to their back-to-back cup losses – which came against Man City and a side, albeit a Championship one, on a 14-game unbeaten run – Mikel Arteta’s men had won six of their last seven matches and were unbeaten in 14. To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of their demise have been greatly exaggerated.
The Gunners also have one foot in the Champions League semis, having won away at Sporting in the first leg. Their passage to the final also looks, just maybe, a little easier too, after Atletico Madrid stunned Barca 2-0 at Camp Nou. Barca may be down, but they are far from out, and Atleti are a class team too, but there is no doubt that Arsenal would rather play Diego Simeone’s men in the semis if given the choice.
Odds on the Double
Arsenal now have a maximum of 11 games left in the 2025/26 campaign, and if they can avoid defeat in them, the double may well be theirs. To get there, they would have to get past some great teams in the Champions League, perhaps Atletico Madrid and then Bayern or PSG – assuming they finish the job against Sporting. It will not be easy, but this may be the best chance they get in a long time.
As for the Premier League, their big lead at the top, plus the fact that this Man City team does not look like one capable of winning their final eight games, means that Arteta’s men are huge odds-on favourites to claim the title. The Gunners are as short as 1/12 with some bookies. Even if you shop around, the best odds you will find even with the offshore bookmakers are 1/7, although if you do go down this route make sure you used a reliable VPN for crypto privacy. Either way though, it means the bookies believe the EPL title is in the bag for Arsenal.
Man City have a game in hand and also host Arsenal, but even so, the Gunners need just 16 points from their final seven games to be sure of the title. As said, we don’t see City winning all of their last eight matches, and so the north Londoners may only need four wins, especially if they can nick a draw at the Etihad. Given their other Premier League fixtures are against sides in the bottom 11, including two against sides in the bottom three, we think Arteta will finally deliver the title to the Emirates after three near misses in the past three campaigns.
So, returning to the Champions League, can Arteta do something that Arsene Wenger couldn’t and land a European title with the Gunners? And not just any European title either, but the most prestigious, one that the club have never previously lifted.
Once again, the bookies make Arsenal the favourites to go all the way. Admittedly, there is a world of difference between 1/7 and 12/5, but the Gunners are the favourites nonetheless. Some firms make them a 2/1 shot too, ahead of Bayern Munich at 5/1 and Paris Saint-Germain at 3/1, with those two heavyweights potentially set to meet in the semis.
A price of 12/5 gives an implied probability of just under 30%, so it is far from a certainty, but Arteta has his side right where he wants them. Fans and all associated with the club would do well to remember that, too. Yes, the treble sailed off into the night with the quadruple, but the double is still very much alive for Arsenal.
That said, we won’t be betting on it, because the only site offering odds on the double prices that at 12/5 – the same odds you can get on the Champions League alone elsewhere! That might sound daft, but given the Gunners are so strongly fancied to win the league, it makes sense really. Ultimately, though, Arsenal’s season should only be judged once it is over – not based on two defeats in domestic cups.