Despite suffering a slight scare against League One Mansfield in the FA Cup fifth round, Arsenal successfully booked their place in the quarter-finals. Securing safe passage to the final eight has kept the Gunners’ quadruple chances firmly alive. While no English club has ever achieved this historic feat, few have ever been as convincingly positioned to do so as Arsenal are right now. Here is a competition-by-competition breakdown of Arsenal’s quadruple chances and why it might not be as unrealistic as some think.
FA Cup
The draw has been very kind to Arsenal in this year’s FA Cup. Their route to the quarter-finals has seen them beat Championship side Portsmouth and two League One opponents in Wigan and Mansfield. As each of these three sides is battling with the threat of relegation in their respective leagues, they did not make for the most formidable of opponents.
The fortunate run has continued as Arsenal have been drawn yet another lower-league opponent, this time in the form of Championship outfit Southampton. This will likely be Arsenal’s toughest FA Cup so far, given that the Saints are play-off contenders, but it is still a game you would expect the Londoners to win.
Arsenal’s favourable draw, combined with the fact Liverpool and Man City have been paired together – guaranteeing that one will be eliminated – has strengthened the Gunners’ FA Cup chances. They are now the 2/1 favourites to secure what would be a record-breaking 15th title in the competition.
Champions League
Continuing the trend of favourable knockout draws, Arsenal have rather lucked out in the Champions League as well. Unlike with the FA Cup, the draw is split into two brackets, so future possible opponents are known in advance. The bracket Arsenal are not in is much tougher on paper, featuring the likes of Bayern Munich, Man City, PSG, Chelsea, Real Madrid and Liverpool.
There are six former European Champions in this tough bracket, yet a mere one on Arsenal’s side (Barcelona). If this was not enough, the Gunners face an easy-looking path to the semi-finals. To get there, they must beat Bayer Leverkusen, currently sixth in the Bundesliga, and after this, they will face either Bodø/Glimt or Sporting Lisbon.
With no disrespect to any of these teams mentioned, it would be a huge shock to see Arsenal eliminated prior to the semi-final stage. The competition will heat up by the semi-finals, but by this stage, Mikel Arteta’s men will just be two games away from a first ever Champions League trophy. The favourable draw has made them clear favourites for the competition, now trading at 5/2, comfortably ahead of second favourites Bayern Munich at 11/2.
League Cup
On 22nd March, when the League Cup final takes place, either Man City or Arsenal will see their quadruple hopes ended. The Gunners look set to head into the match as narrow favourites, but ultimately it is a game that could easily go in either direction. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six matches against the Citizens, across competitions, but Pep Guardiola has a superb record in cup finals, whereas Arteta has not won a major trophy since 2020.
Premier League
Having overcome a slight wobble, Arsenal are back as the convincing title race favourites. With eight matches to go, they enjoy a seven-point lead over Man City (who have a game in hand) and are the 1/5 favourites to end up in first place. It would be naïve to say the race is over, what with Arsenal still having to travel to the Etihad, but the Gunners are certainly in a very strong position.
The clash with Man City is Arsenal’s one remaining fixture against a team in the current top seven, so there are few troublesome-looking fixtures left aside from that one. Even if Arsenal were to suffer defeat in Manchester, and City win their remaining game in hand, the Gunners would still win the title by simply matching City’s results.
Summary
As far as quadruple chances go, Arsenal’s look strong. They are the favourites for all four competitions they are involved in, partially thanks to kind-looking draws in the FA Cup and Champions League. That said, the Gunners are priced at 16/1 to pull off this famous feat, an implied probability of around 6%. While this is an extremely low price for a quadruple (City are available at 2001/), it still goes to show that it is rather unlikely.
The issue is that three of the competitions are knockout cup competitions. Just one poor game across these can see Arsenal eliminated. Additionally, every single final, should Arsenal reach the last stage, will likely be against a strong side, just as it is in the League Cup. None of the finals will be easy to win, so to win all of them is a huge ask. Even so, the Gunners are certainly right where they want to be, and closer to this amazing achievement than they have ever been before.