Arsenal may have entered the international break at the top of the Premier League, but their recent draw with Sunderland let the chasing pack creep closer. A strong response to that minor setback is something the Gunners would welcome, and there’s no better time to deliver one than in the north London derby.
Although the draw with Sunderland reduced their momentum, Arsenal still retain a four-point lead over second-place Man City coming into the weekend’s action. Anything less than victory in the north London derby (NLD) risks narrowing that gap further. Matches with Tottenham are always significant, but this fixture holds added importance in the context of Arsenal’s title ambitions.
Can Newcastle Give Arsenal an Early Lift?
On Saturday, a day before the NLD, Man City must travel to St James’ Park to take on Newcastle. Admittedly, Newcastle’s league form is below their usual standards, but it is still not an easy place to go. Pep Guardiola’s men had to settle for a point on their last trip to Tyneside and required a 91st-minute strike to snatch three points the time before. It is not too hard to imagine the Toon Army getting a result, and if so, it will give Arsenal a golden opportunity to go six or seven points clear at the top of the table.
Arsenal Heavily Favoured for North London Clash
Arsenal are generally trading around odds of 2/5 to win the upcoming north London Derby, while Tottenham can be backed at a large 15/2. It is a fixture Arsenal ought to be winning, and they have a very decent record against their local rivals.
The Gunners are unbeaten in the last five NLDs and have won all but one of them. You would perhaps not expect such a big gap in the odds when it’s a clash between first versus fifth in the league, but Tottenham are perhaps fortunate to be so high up the table.
Tottenham Unlikely to Carry Goal Threat Despite Strong Away Record
Aside from an impressive victory against Man City, Tottenham’s away wins in the league have all come against teams in the bottom half. They took three points from Everton (13th), Leeds (16th) and West Ham (18th), plus they managed a draw against Brighton. It is worth noting here that Tottenham scored two corner goals against Everton and West Ham. Clearly, Arsenal are not the only team to have enjoyed success from set pieces this season, but Tottenham’s routines are likely to be far less effective against the Gunners.
Arsenal have conceded a mere 1.54 xG from corners this season, so they will back themselves to keep the likes of Micky van Ven and Cristian Romero quiet. It is also difficult to see Spurs creating much from open play against such a strong Arsenal rearguard. The stats will tell you that this fixture tends to provide goals, with the white half of north London scoring in their last eight visits to the Emirates across competitions. The Tottenham goalscorers in this time, however, are Son Heung-Min (x5), Harry Kane (x3), Christian Eriksen, Dele Alli, Erik Lamela, and Eric Dier.
As you can see, it has taken some superb attacking talents (plus Eric Dier) for Spurs to score in the north London derby in recent years. They simply don’t have players of that quality these days, and there is a distinct lack of goals in the Tottenham front line. Richarlison is their only attacking player to have registered more than two league goals this season, but the Brazilian has been in such poor form of late that his place in the starting 11 is far from guaranteed.
When also factoring in that Tottenham have as many as 11 injured or doubtful players for this clash, they just do not look to be in a position to cause Arsenal any real problems. It should also be noted that Thomas Frank has generally struggled against the Gunners, winning just one of nine previous encounters with them.
Can Arsenal Assert Their Authority?
While you are right to be unconvinced by Tottenham’s attacking options, Thomas Frank has at least improved them defensively. Spurs have the fourth-best defensive record in the league, albeit the 10th-best expected goals against record. The Gunners have not struggled to score at home, though, netting 12 goals across their five league home matches. Their attack was admittedly blunted against fellow London rivals Crystal Palace, but having taken a fairly early lead, there was little need to commit too many men forward.
Having Gabriel miss this fixture due to an injury sustained on international duty is less than ideal, but Cristhian Mosquera and Piero Hincapie are superb replacements to have. Riccardo Calafiori is expected to be fit, and this game may also see the return of Noni Madueke and/or Gabriel Martinelli. So, as far as the injury situation goes, Arsenal are not in too bad shape and are faring better than their local rivals.
Overall, this contest tilts strongly in Arsenal’s favour, and it would be a major surprise not to see them claim all three points on Sunday.